Sir,
When pondering how to handle Russia, a little review of the past might help give some guidance.
Throughout its history, Russia has been a great European nation. It has contributed to the spread of European culture as far as Japan, Korea, China, Mongolia and Central Asia, participated in most great European upheavals of the last millennium. The post-WWII Europe we live in today would not be the same without Russia and its immense sacrifices in that war.
Unfortunately, over the past century Russia has taken a road of antagonism to Europe. In the 1990’s there was hope that Russia would find its way back to Europe somehow, someday. In that context NATO seemed obsolete, and it was easy to promise no further NATO expansion to the East. But after the fall of the Soviet Union the Russians have never embarked in a catharsis like the Germans after WWII, to process their recent past, acknowledge their mistakes to themselves and others and turn the page on history for good. Instead, Russia has again turned towards a system that is adversarial to Europe. Ironically Europe has paid for that change by trading with Russia and providing the regime with most of its wealth.
After the Iron Curtain came down, those nations that were free to choose opted to go west, from the EU to NATO and other organizations. Europe’s economic prosperity, peace, and to some extent democracy were and are the most attractive way of life for everybody between Vladivostok and East Berlin. Some have that today, others still dream about it, and the Russians will never get it as long as the current regime is in place. In good tyrant style, the Russian regime has chosen attack as the best defense, and has created a fictitious Western aggressor to keep the population in line. A few failed states with frozen conflicts on its borders supposedly guarantee no further advance of “the enemy”. The wars in Moldova in 1990-92, in Georgia in 1992-93, again Georgia in 2008, and then in Ukraine in 2014 signal that whenever a country on Russia’s border tries to join the west, a short war that then freezes creates a state of tension and attrition. I doubt the Baltic states would be able to join the EU today.
In this context it must be clear that for Europe, regime change in Russia is the only solution. As long as the nuisance of today’s Russia didn’t cost Europe, it could be ignored, waiting for regime change to happen over time. But Russian agents killing opponents in European cities, the advent of Donald Trump, Brexit and a flurry of extremist parties pretty much everywhere in Europe, rising energy prices, the Border conflict in Belarus clearly show that a richer Russia will bring trouble to Europe, and this can’t just be ignored.
Open confrontation will be hard to win, as the PR-genius in the Kremlin will use it to rally his people. And there are the nukes. Economic action, to cripple the Russian economy, will be hard to achieve with a giant resource-rich nation that can easily shift to trade with China.
So what’s left? Pay Putin back in his own currency. Initiatives at scale to promote regime change among the populations of Russia, Belarus, and maybe even Central Asia, countering the Russian propaganda and propping up the various oppositions in a meaningful way might be a solution. Navalny’s Youtube videos have probably been the most powerful weapon for regime change in a long time. The 2020 protests almost tipped the balance in Belarus. Maybe promoting separatist movements in Russia, Catalonian style, can help as well. Or putting political extremist parties of all colors in great numbers into the Duma, like we know very well from all over Europe. Unfortunately there is no Britain-equivalent in the CIS to sponsor an exit that causes meaningful disruption. There is room for a lot of creativity in this direction though.
But in all this, it’s key that Europe has a plan for Russia after Putin, to avoid being left in an Iraq-style situation. Should it ever be 1990 again, we must know how to act swiftly, and help Russia get back into Europe, where it belongs.
