Sir,
In the fog of war in Ukraine, it’s sometimes not easy to see what is news and what isn’t. All kinds of true or fake facts, grand declarations and hot air fly over the mediatic battlefield. As far as I can read there simply are no heavy German weapons in Ukraine after over 100 days of war. But how can the Ukrainians be so impertinently impatient? A wealthy country that needs 29 years to plan and build a modest airport for its capital, might need a little time to dust off its old weapons. So please be patient with the Germans. As for expectations on what they might actually be able to deliver, we know since 1962 that the German military is only “bedingt abwehrbereit”, or not really fit to fight. Due to the postwar doctrine of economic collaboration as the continuation of war with other means, German weapon storages were probably as depleted as their gas equivalents on February 24.
What I find more interesting though is how you fall for the “Zeitenwende”. German strategy towards Russia has just switched back from economic warfare to a conventional one (remember the success of the last military campaign?). Instead of spending €100bn on factories and fuel, they now spend them on weapons. But there isn’t really any “Wende” or change of direction. For centuries Germany and Russia have ignored anybody between them while playing some sort of “politichess”. As Johannes Spohr explained in Der Spiegel recently, to Germany Ukraine was mostly a workbench, corn chamber, sales market or a means to molest Russia. Germany’s current policy confirms this tradition, as do Mr. Scholz’ calls with Mr Putin. I’m sure German industry can’t be happier about the two – they can keep pumping Russian oil and gas, and the more Ukraine gets hammered, the more there might be to rebuild for them later. Cars, roads, houses, factories – Germany has it all for Ukraine. And if the Russians chop off a piece, then it’s divide and conquer. Their partner gets a cut, and they can both merrily move on to the next round.
A real “Zeitenwende” would have broken with this tradition, maybe by taking the sovereign states between Germany and Russia seriously for once, along with their security worries. The fact that every country that slipped out of Russian control after 1989 escaped into the EU and/or Nato, should have made their fear of Russia cristal clear. But in a rare appreciation of a southern European, the Germans seem to follow Tomasi di Lampedusa. “Everything must change for everything to remain the same”. Happy zeitenwending.
